The blogosphere has been ablaze with speculation about tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts. For good reason, it's the most remarkable political story this country has seen in some time. A little known Republican state senator, Scott Brown, is challenging the chosen successor to Teddy Kennedy's former senate seat in the bluest of the blue states. In some ways, Brown's spectacular rise is not dissimilar to the origins of the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. But the werewolf doesn't want to get ahead of himself.
There are multiple dynamics that make this race remarkable. Many perceive it as a national referendum on the vile health cae legislation currently under consideration, some see it as a referendum on Obama himself. The democratic candidate, Martha Coakley, has been subjected to heinous attacks from her own party as they preemptively write her obituary to mitigate the fallout from a potential defeat. (If she wins, payback could be a bitch to key national democrats) She has also run a lazy and gaffe prone campaign. Whereas, Brown has run a highly disciplined and impressive campaign that has propelled him to the national spotlight.
As for predictions, this is a toughie. Turnout for special elections is always tough to gauge. Plus, this race is a real barn burner. It's shocking that Brown leads in most polls in a state where Democratic registration outweighs Republicans by more than a 3 to 1 ratio. It's legit, just shocking, and speaks to how poorly Americans view those in power. This may also lend some steam to the notion that Democrats have severely misread their mandate and are futher out of touch than anyone fathomed. Beyond a natural registration advantage, Democrats are also extremely gifted at stealing elections, so if it is close, the Democrat machine may tip the scales for Coakley. Plus, Massachusetts hasn't had a Republican senator since Edward Brooke left the senate in 1979.
The werewolf is pulling for Brown. He thinks he has all the momentum, is amazed by his discipline and prowess, but isn't ready to call it for Brown because it feels premature, and he learned long ago, to hold your hope in reserve. Regardless of tomorrow's outcome, 2010 looks to be a very bad year for Democrats. That unto itself gives the werewolf cause to grin.
The werewolf also wonders, if Brown wins, does it merit consideration for something larger in 2012?