Friday, February 19, 2010

The Dubai Spy Caper

The werewolf has been mildly captivated by the all of the media coverage regarding last month's semi-spectacular Hollywoodesque hit of a well known Hamas terrorist (good riddance).  Varying degrees of coverage and opinion can be found, here, here, here, and here.  There is more to this story than meets the eye.
In brief, it is believed that a team of eleven entered the emirate of Dubai on a variety of falsified passports from several European Union countries. They then carefully tracked and whacked the aforementioned terrorist, although no corpse has been presented.  A consensus is forming in certain circles that this was a Mossad hit. However, the werewolf is becoming skeptical because so much has gone south regarding the operation and for all of its purported cleverness, something seems slightly amiss.  
The Mossad are pros, plain and simple. They are also part of a disciplined government  operation that has access to advanced drones, spy satellites, and a vast array of other espionage resources. This doesn’t discount the human capacity to error, still that seems improbable.  Why be covertly intricate, if there is a chance to kill the guy with a missile, well placed bomb, or just gun him down in his home turf why not take it? It is working well for the US in the AFPAK region. From what little can be pieced together about this operation in the press, it seems large, complicated, and while spectacular and theoretically successful, it leaves too many lose ends. Eleven is a large number of personnel to fabricate complicated back stories for and disperse properly.  Also, it creates more variable that can destabilize an equation as we’ve seen.  Plus, risking straining already frayed diplomatic ties with several European Union members seems a tad odd.  This story seems like an ugly attempt to mate the The Dirty Dozen, Munich, Mission Impossible, and Ocean’s 11. Talk about an ugly pavement puppy.
Despite being a veracious consumer of spy and espionage literature, elements of this tale seem to suggest that framing the Mossad was the objective. The werewolf isn’t one for over-emphasizing conspiracy theories. Perhaps the culprit was the Iranians, who want to distract attention from their internal crackdown along with uranium enrichment progress.  Is a disaffected arms dealer whom Hamas has failed to pay on time beyond the realm of possibilities? Perhaps, Hamas no longer had use for this guy and eliminating him and undermining the Israelis was a two for the price of one kinda deal?  Who knows? The werewolf has no idea what really happened, but remains convinced that narrative being pimped is way off the mark.  Thoughts?

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